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Gold Medal Recovery Limited by Economy, Affordability 
BCREA Housing Forecast Update - First Quarter 2010

Vancouver, BC – January 29, 2010.
 
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its Housing Forecast Update for the first quarter of 2010 today.
 
BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 6 per cent from 85,028 units in 2009 to 90,100 units this year, before declining 3 per cent to 87,500 units in 2011.
 
Higher home prices and rising mortgage interest rates will provide a constraint on home sales next year.
 
“BC MLS® residential sales sprinted from an annualized rate of 50,000 units during the first quarter to 112,000 units during the fourth quarter last year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “That gold medal finish will give way to a silver medal performance in 2010.”  
 
Relatively slow economic growth, waning pent-up demand and rising carrying costs are expected to keep home sales from continuing at their frenetic pace.
 
While home sales in Victoria, Vancouver and the Fraser Valley rebounded sharply last year and weighted heavily in the provincial total, the rest of the province is demonstrating more gradual improvement.
 
The average annual MLS® residential price in BC is forecast to increase 5 per cent to $490,900 this year and then rise by 1 per cent to $494,800 in 2011. “Higher mortgage interest rates will limit price appreciation next year,” added Muir.  
 
The full BCREA Housing Forecast Update is available at: www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/HousingForecast.pdf.
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Slow start, strong finish for housing market in 2009


After beginning the year at near record low sales levels, buyers’ confidence in the Greater Vancouver housing market quickly returned, allowing for significant and sustained increases in the number of residential property sales for much of 2009.
 
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that total unit sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in 2009 reached 35,669, a 44.8 per cent increase from the 24,626 unit sales recorded in 2008, but a 6.3 per cent decline from the 38,050 residential sales in 2007.
 
The number of homes listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver declined 15.5 per cent in 2009 to 52,869 compared to the 62,561 properties listed in 2008.
 
“Low interest rates, an economy emerging from recession and continuing to improve, and consumer confidence led to the resurgence experienced in the Greater Vancouver housing market in 2009,” Scott Russell, REBGV president said. “Home sales neared or passed monthly records in Greater Vancouver throughout the latter half of 2009. In fact, last month’s home sales rank as the third highest selling December in the 90-year history of our organization.”
 
Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,515 in December 2009, an increase of 172.2 per cent from the 924 sales recorded in December 2008, and an 18.4 per cent decline compared to November 2009 when 3,083 home sales occurred. 
 
The residential benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for Greater Vancouver increased 16.2 per cent to $562,463 between Decembers 2008 and 2009.
 
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,153 in December 2009. This represents a 38.9 per cent increase compared to the 1,550 new units listed in December 2008 and a 41.1 per cent decline compared to November 2009 when 3,653 properties were listed.
 
“The number of homes listed for sale on our MLS® has been in decline in Greater Vancouver for eight of the last nine months, which results in upward pressure on home prices and less selection for buyers to choose from,” Russell said.
 
Total active listings in Greater Vancouver currently sit at 8,939, a decrease of 41 per cent from December 2008, and a decrease of 19 per cent from November 2009 (see graph on page two for more detail).
 
Sales of detached properties in December 2009 increased 159.2 per cent to 902, compared to 348 sales in December 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 18.3 per cent to $766,816 compared to December 2008.
 
Sales of apartment properties in December 2009 increased 176.7 per cent to 1,154, compared to 417 sales in December 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 14.8 per cent since December 2008 to $382,573.
 
Attached property sales in December 2009 increased 188.7 per cent to 459, compared with the 159 sales in December 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 12.9 per cent between Decembers 2008 and 2009 to $478,093. 
 

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