The global economy is feeling the lasting effects of the most serious financial crisis since the 1930s. As meticulously documented by economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhardt in their examination of eight centuries of data, recoveries from financial crises are characterized by sluggish growth in output and employment.

Although Canada’s relatively stodgy banking system ensured that we did not suffer a domestic financial crisis, our fundamental dependence on the United States, the epicenter of the global crisis, means that we are mired in the second-hand effects of the US’s economic lethargy.

However, as we detail below, there may be a silver lining for BC households in these cloudy skies.

Second quarter GDP growth fell well below expectations at just 2% (annualized). This represented a marked deceleration from first quarter growth of 5.8%. Flagging consumer spending and weaker residential investment resulting from the expiration of the home renovation tax credit tempered growth in the second quarter.

Economic growth in the remainder of 2010 and 2011 may continue to underwhelm due a cooling housing sector, sluggish economic growth in the United States and an end to Government fiscal stimulus. Moreover, unemployment that is projected to hover near 8% for several quarters may hinder consumption going forward.

In all, we see the Canadian economy growing at a 3.3% pace in 2010 before slowing to 2.5% in 2011.

In the face of slowing growth and low inflation, the Bank of Canada raised rates for what we expect to be the final time in 2010 at its September 8 meeting. Although the Bank’s medium-run objective of returning rates to normal longrun levels is still intact, the Bank will take a very cautious approach to tightening monetary policy over the next 6 to 12 months and further rate tightening will be highly dependent on how solid the ground is underneath both the Canadian and US economies.

Given that inflation is projected to remain subdued and growth is expected to slow, we have trimmed our forecast for the overnight rate to 1% at the end of 2010 and 2 % by the end of 2011 (from 1 %- 1.25 and 2.5 % respectively).

In our July forecast, we noted that mortgage rates would continue to trend lower in the short-run and indeed downward pressure on interest rates has not only continued, but has in fact intensified.

Although fear stemming from the European debt crisis has seemingly subsided, fresh concern has emerged about the United States’ economy where hopes of a “summer of recovery” have quickly faded into fear of a dreaded “doubledip” recession.

In response, cautious households and companies have increased savings, adding to the flood of demand for safe assets and forcing long-term Government bond yields to levels not seen since the height of the global financial crisis.

Yields on Canadian Government 5-year bonds, the benchmark for mortgage pricing, have fallen a remarkable 100 basis points since the spring to just 2.1 %. Although this decline in interest rates is likely overdone, it is difficult to say when bond markets may normalize.

A much discussed second round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve (so-called QE2) could mean that US and Canadian interest rates stay low for an extended period. On the other hand, unexpected good news on the US economy may translate to faster pace of interest rate normalization.

The silver-lining in the lacklustre economic outlook is that the normalization of both short-term and long-term interest rates will be deferred. BC households with variable rate mortgages will therefore be facing lower payments than we would have originally predicted at the beginning of the year.

Moreover, new homebuyers or homeowners set to renew their mortgages will be offered a second chance at securing rates at levels last seen at the depths of the financial crisis.

The BCREA mortgage rate forecast is for a continuation of the current low-rate environment into early 2011, when prompted by a new round of tightening by the Bank of Canada and (hopefully) brighter economic prospects, interest rates will renew their ascendency to historical norms but at a measured pace.

The 1-year fixed mortgage rate is forecasted to finish 2010 at around 3.2 % and to reach 4.05% by the end of 2011. The 5-year fixed mortgage rate is forecasted to end the year at 5.35% and to reach 6.1 % by the end of 2011.

A decision of the British Columbia Human Rights Tribunal late last year could have an enormous effect on owners and occupants of condominiums and rental apartments across Canada in the coming months.

Paul and Rose Kabatoff live in a suite in an attractive three-storey condominium building in Langley, B.C. They both have a number of health problems including respiratory illnesses and allergies that are negatively affected by second-hand cigarette smoke.

In August 2008, smokers moved into the suite below their own. The Kabatoffs appealed for help to their condominium corporation (known in B.C. as a strata corporation), claiming that the second-hand smoke coming from their neighbours downstairs worsened their health problems. They provided a letter from their doctor supporting their request.

Ideally, the Kabatoffs wanted the condominium to adopt a no smoking bylaw, which it would not do.

Eventually, they filed a claim with the B.C. Human Rights Tribunal, asserting that the condominium failed to provide them with a housing environment free of second-hand smoke. They alleged that the condominium refused to do anything about the smoke issue, and that they were told that if they had a problem with the smokers they should move.

The B.C. Human Rights Code makes it illegal to deny accommodation to a person because of his or her physical disability (among other reasons) without "a bona fide and reasonable justification." The Ontario code has a similar prohibition, stating that every person has a right to equal treatment with respect to the occupancy of accommodation without discrimination by reason of disability (and other reasons).

As with other provincial Human Rights Codes, the B.C. code prevails in the event of a conflict with any other legislation – including the B.C. Strata Property Act.

In October, the condominium (strata) corporation applied to the tribunal to have the complaint dismissed without a hearing. They based the application on the fact that the smokers were not violating any condominium bylaws. The president of the corporation said that it does not have a no-smoking bylaw and it therefore had no authority or ability to respond to the complaint.

Essentially, its position was that since there was no prohibition of smoking in an owner's private suite or balcony in the building, there was no basis for the Kabatoff complaint.

Tribunal member Marlene Tyshynski presided at the hearing, and dismissed the condominium corporation's application to toss out the complaint. She also provided a clear road map for the Kabatoffs to pursue and even succeed with their claim.

"If the Kabatoffs are able to establish that they have disabilities that are exacerbated by second-hand smoke," Tyshynski wrote, "their complaint that Strata Corp. failed to accommodate their disabilities could amount to discrimination under the code. The Strata Corp.'s application would be denied."

If the Kabatoffs are able to produce medical evidence of physical disability at the hearing of their complaint, it seems that this condominium – and similar condominium or rental buildings across the country – would be forced to become completely non-smoking if any occupant complains of a disability resulting from tobacco smoke.

As a human rights issue, the no-smoking requirement would supersede any building bylaw or condominium legislation in force at the time.

The idea that external legislation could affect the governing of condominium corporations will probably not go over well with the management and boards of thousands of condo and rental buildings across the country.

On the other hand, those of us who are very sensitive to tobacco smoke will chalk this case up as a significant victory for public health advocates. (Full disclosure: I am an elected member and past chair of the executive committee of the Non-Smokers' Rights Association.)

In a telephone conversation last week, Paul Kabatoff said that negotiations are underway with the new condominium board, and that his Tribunal application may not have to proceed to a full hearing.

I wouldn't be surprised if the entire building became smoke-free within the next little while.