The B.C. government announced on April 8, 2011 the process by which British Columbians will cast their ballot in the HST referendum vote this summer.

Key Dates:

• Monday, June 13 – Elections BC starts mailing out referendum ballots for the HST to all registered voters.
• Friday, June 24 – Majority of British Columbians have received the ballot.
• Friday, July 8 – Last day for unregistered voters to request a ballot from Elections BC.
• Friday, July 22, 4:30 p.m. (local time) – Completed ballots must be received by mail by Elections BC or in person by a Service BC centre.

Elections BC, a non-partisan office of the legislature, will conduct the referendum.

British Columbians who are not registered voters for a provincial election, or who have moved since the last election and have not updated their voter record, will need to request a ballot from Elections BC.

It will take several weeks for Elections BC to count the ballots. Results of the vote are expected in August.

The referendum question will be:

“Are you in favour of extinguishing the HST (Harmonized Sales Tax) and reinstating the PST (Provincial Sales Tax) in conjunction with the GST (Goods and Services Tax)? Yes/No.”

Quote:

Attorney General Barry Penner –

“Most British Columbians will have their ballot by June 24 and can begin weighing this very important decision. Voters will need to remember that, to be counted, they must make sure their ballots are mailed in time to be received by Elections BC before the close of voting at 4:30 p.m. local time on Friday, July 22 or deliver their completed ballot to a Service BC centre by the same deadline.”

Learn More:

For more information on the HST, visit: www.hstinbc.ca

For more information on Elections BC, visit: www.elections.bc.ca

The Greater Vancouver residential housing market entered three distinctive phases in 2010. Continued buoyancy from the post-recession recovery began the year, followed by a summer lull and, throughout the fall, a sustained period of stability.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that total sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in 2010 reached 30,595, a 14.2 per cent decrease from the 35,669 sales recorded in 2009, but a 24.2 per cent increase from the 24,626 residential sales in 2008. Last year’s number of housing sales was 10.3 per cent below the ten-year average for annual Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales in the region.

The number of residential properties listed for sale on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver increased 9.7 per cent in 2010 to 58,009 compared to the 52,869 properties listed in 2009. Compared to 2008, last year’s total represents a 7.3 per cent decline compared to the 62,561 residential properties listed in 2008. The number of properties added to the MLS® peaked in April and generally declined for the remainder of the year.

“The last two years have been a bit of a rollercoaster for the real estate market. However, sales over the past six months have definitely shown a trend toward stability. We think that’s good news for home buyers and sellers,” Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said. “The Greater Vancouver housing market experienced a modest increase in home prices in 2010, and a continual decrease in the number of properties being listed for sale.”

Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,899 in December 2010, a decrease of 24.5 per cent from the 2,515 sales recorded in December 2009—an all time record for the month—and a 24.3 per cent decline compared to November 2010 when 2,509 home sales occurred.

More broadly, last month’s residential sales represent a 105.5 per cent increase over the 924 residential sales in December 2008, a 0.1 per cent increase compared to December 2007’s 1,897 sales, and a 12.6 per cent increase compared to the 1,686 sales in December 2006.

The residential benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for Greater Vancouver increased 2.7 per cent to $577,808 between Decembers 2009 and 2010. However, prices have decreased 2.6 per cent since hitting a peak of $593,419 in April 2010.

“Although we saw some pressure on home prices throughout the year, home values in 2010 remained relatively steady in the region compared to the last few years when we witnessed much more fluctuation,” Moldowan said.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,699 in December 2010. This represents a 21.1 per cent decline compared to the 2,153 units listed in December 2009 and a 43.9 per cent decline compared to November 2010 when 3,030 properties were listed.

Sales of detached properties in December 2010 reached 769, a decrease of 14.8 per cent from the 902 detached sales recorded in December 2009, and a 121.1 per cent increase from the 348 units sold in December 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 4.0 per cent from December 2009 to $797,868.

Sales of apartment properties reached 811 in December 2010, a decline of 29.7 per cent compared to the 1,154 sales in December 2009, and an increase of 94.5 per cent compared to the 417 sales in December 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 1.2 per cent from December 2009 to $387,115.

Attached property sales in December 2010 totalled 319, a decline of 30.5 per cent compared to the 459 sales in December 2009, and a 100.6 per cent increase from the 159 attached properties sold in December 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 2.7 per cent between December 2009 and 2010 to $490,869.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province declined 35 per cent to 5,590 units in August compared to the same month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, MLS® residential unit sales in the province increased 7 per cent in August from July 2010. The average MLS® residential price climbed 4 per cent to $487,804 in August compared to the same month last year.

"The number of new residential listings in the province has fallen 30 per cent since April," added Muir. "With fewer new listings, total active listings are now on the decline, signaling that an end to the buyer's market may be on the horizon."

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 8 per cent to $26.9 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales rose 2 per cent to 53,717 year-to-date, while the average MLS® residential price climbed 10 per cent to $501,226 over the same period.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, follow this link:
www.bcrea.bc.ca/news_room/2010-08.pdf.

The Greater Vancouver housing market experienced steady activity to begin the summer season.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,972 in June 2010, a decline of 30.2 per cent compared to the 4,259 sales in June 2009, which was the second highest selling June on record.

“Activity in June marked a healthy balance between the near record setting pace of June 2009 and the considerably slower activity witnessed in June 2008, a period of recession as we all know,” Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said.

Compared to June 2008, last month’s sales represent a 22.6 per cent increase over the 2,425 sales recorded that month, but are 30 per cent less than the 4,244 sales in June 2007. June 2010 sales also represent a 5.8 per cent decline compared to the previous month’s sales totals.

“We didn’t experience any record-breaking activity in June, but we did see a stable summer market,” Moldowan said. “The number of new listings coming on the market is not as dramatic as we saw over the previous three months and demand remains at a healthy level for this traditionally quieter time of year.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties totalled 5,544 in June 2010, a 3.2 per cent increase compared to June 2009 when 5,372 new units were listed, and a 21 per cent decline compared to May 2010 when 7,014 properties were added to the MLS®.

At 17,564, the total number of property listings on the MLS® increased 1.2 per cent in June compared to last month, and is up 32 per cent compared to this time last year.

“There has been less upward pressure on prices in our market the last few months, which has allowed prices to ease back from the record high numbers seen in April,” Moldowan said.

Over the last 12 months, the overall MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 11.8 per cent to $580,237 from $518,855 in June 2009.

Sales of detached properties in June 2010 reached 1,139, a decrease of 31.7 per cent from the 1,667 detached sales recorded in June 2009 and a 24.1 per cent increase from the 918 units sold in June 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 13.4 per cent from June 2009 to $795,025.

Download the complete stats package by clicking here.

The number of properties listed for sale in Greater Vancouver continued to rise in May, while the number of sales showed a year-over-year decrease.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,156 in May 2010, a decline of 10.4 per cent compared to the 3,524 sales in May 2009; 5.1 per cent more than the 3,002 sales in May 2008; and 27.1 per cent less than the 4,331 sales in May 2007. May 2010 sales also represent a 10.1 per cent decline compared to last month's sales.

In terms of number of property listings, last month marked the third consecutive month during which more than 7,000 homes were listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties totalled 7,014 in May 2010, a 48.2 per cent increase compared to May 2009 when 4,733 new units were listed, and an 8.3 per cent decline compared to April 2010 when 7,648 properties were added to the MLS®.

At 17,492, the total number of property listings on the MLS® increased 10 per cent in May compared to last month, and is up 28.2 per cent compared to this time last year.

"Prospective home buyers in today’s market have a broad selection to choose from in every property type. REALTORS® are telling us they’re working with buyers who are not feeling as rushed to make a decision as they did late last year and earlier in the year," Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said.

Over the last 12 months, the overall MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 16.7 per cent to $590,662 from $506,201 in May 2009.

"It's important for those looking to buy or sell a home to remember that real estate is local and wise real estate decisions are made by those who understand current market conditions at the neighbourhood level," Moldowan said.

Sales of detached properties in May 2010 reached 1,256, a decrease of 10.4 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in May 2009 and a 4.4 per cent increase from the 1,203 units sold in May 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 19.1 per cent from May 2009 to $810,175.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,354 in May 2010, a decline of 7.1 per cent compared to the 1,458 sales in May 2009 and an increase of 8.8 per cent compared to the 1,244 sales in May 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 13.9 per cent from May 2009 to $398,783.

Attached property sales in May 2010 totalled 546, a decline of 17.8 per cent compared to the 664 sales in May 2009 and a 1.6 per cent decline from the 555 attached properties sold in May 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 14.8 per cent between May 2009 and 2010 to $500,339.

Download the complete stats package by clicking here.

Rapidly changing market conditions have led the Canadian Real Estate Association to lower its forecast for housing sales this year.

The Ottawa-based group, which represents 100 boards across the country, now says 2010 sales will not be as strong as previously forecast and by next year prices will begin falling.

CREA expects 490,600 sales through the Multiple Listing Service in 2010, a 5.5% jump from a year earlier and the second-best year on record. However, by 2011, sales are expected to fall by 8.5%.

“The revision reflects a weaker-than-expected start to the year in British Columbia, and recent developments that pulled forward the timing as to when sales are expected to ease in other provinces,” the group said in a statement.

A major factor pushing people into the market earlier has been new mortgage rules that went into effect April 19. Canadians buying homes with mortgage default insurance must now qualify based on what is called the benchmark rate for a five-year fixed-rate closed mortgage, if they opt for terms of under five years.

The impact has been that borderline borrowers get less cash for their homes because they must qualify based on a rate that is 6% today. Consumers going for terms five years or longer can qualify based on the rate on their contract, which is as low as 4.25% for a five-year mortgage based on discounting.

The rules have forced many consumers out of variable rate mortgages tied to prime, which even after yesterday’s Bank of Canada rate hike, stood at 2.5%.

“The changes prompted some homebuyers to finance their home purchase before the new regulations took effect in April, which pulled forward a number of sales that would have otherwise taken place at a later date,” said CREA.

With the Bank of Canada on Tuesday finally increasing its overnight lending rate, which prime tracks, that too is expected to impact home sales in the coming months. “Interest rates are expected to rise slowly and at a measured pace during a new era of government spending restraint, so home financing will remain within reach for many homebuyers,” said Georges Pahud, CREA president.

CREA now says the market peaked in the fourth quarter of 2009 and predicts by next year the average price of a home sold through the MLS will be $318,300, a 2.2% decline from 2010. This year’s average price increase is now expected to be only 1.6% higher than 2009.

Average price increases were previously forecast to rise 5.4% in 2009, but the lower sales activity in British Columbia, which includes the country’s most expensive market in Vancouver, drove down the national numbers. In fact, only B.C. and Ontario are not expected to post price gains in 2011.

“With interest rates soon expected to rise, Canada is widely believed to be entering a typical demand-driven downturn due to recent prices increases and rising interest rates,” said Gregory Klump, chief economist with CREA. “A downward trend in national sales activity combined with an increase in listings will result in a more balanced market. In keeping with the return of a balanced housing market and typical demand-driven housing market cycle dynamics, prices will remain stable.”

Mr. Klump emphasized that Canada’s mortgage market remains “solid,” and that conservative lending practices mean the country will not experience the same type of correction the United States has had where prices have fallen as much as 50% in some markets.

Last month, CREA issued a report debunking the theory put forward by a number of commentators that the Canadian housing market was headed for a major correction. The report came on the heels of an analysis from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce senior economist Benjamin Tal that housing prices in Canada were 14% overvalued.

Vancouver Highlights

• Moderating MLS® sales and more homes listed for sale will move the resale market into more balanced market conditions.
• Home prices will rise 11 per cent this year1, with most of the gains taking place in the fi rst half of the year.
• Modest price growth is forecast for 2011.
• New home construction will increase, but stay below the ten-year average level, this year and next.
• Improving economic and labour market conditions will mean slightly lower rental apartment vacancy rates in 2010 and 2011.

Resale Market Becomes More Balanced

MLS® sales in Greater Vancouver are forecast to moderate in the second half of 2010 and remain flat through 2011. While an improving local economy and job market, along with steady population growth, will support home ownership demand, higher mortgage rates will dampen demand starting in the second half of this year. In addition, much of the pent-up demand that built up during 2008, has been satisfied. In 2009, many first time home buyers made the move to home ownership, taking advantage of record low mortgage rates and prices that had fallen from their previous peak levels. While first quarter home sales this year were well above the low levels of the first quarter 2009, the pace of sales has slowed compared to last fall. This trend will continue, resulting in a three per cent decline in annual sales both this year and next.

At the same time that the pace of sales is expected to flatten, there will be more homes for sale. The steady increase in home prices during the past year has motivated potential sellers to list their homes. The number of new listings added to the market trended higher in the first quarter of 2010. However, strong sales have kept the total stock of active listings on the market well below previous peak levels reached in late 2008.

A combination of moderating sales and an increase in the number of listings will mean more balanced market conditions in Vancouver for the remainder of this year and into 2011. Expect to see fewer multiple offers on properties listed for sale. Buyers will have a larger selection of homes to choose from and more time to make their home purchase decision. With more homes on the market, there will also be less upward pressure on prices going forward. As the resale market adjusts to more balanced supply and demand conditions, the pace of price growth will slow. However, there is often a lag between when conditions become more balanced and when prices react. As a result of high prices and robust sales in the early part of 2010, the annual average MLS® price will increase 11 per cent, with the most of the increase accounted for by the first half of the year. Balanced market conditions will result in home prices rising a more modest three per cent in 2011.

Price growth during the past year has varied by home type. As of March 2010, apartment condo and townhouse prices were two and three per cent above their previous peak levels, respectively. However, single detached home prices were seven per cent above their previous peak level, pushing the total price up nine per cent over the previous peak. Single detached home sales have shifted to the higher price ranges. For example, in 2009, 48 per cent of homes sold were priced above $700,000, while in the first quarter of 2010, 62 per cent of the total sales were above this threshold. Apartment condominium sales saw a smaller shift to higher price ranges, with the proportion sold at the upper end of the market (above $400,000) increasing from 32 per cent last year to 38 per cent of total sales in the first quarter of this year.

Modest Increase in New Home Construction

New home construction in the Vancouver CMA is projected to increase this year and next. An improving local economy and job market will contribute to growth in housing starts. As well, an estimated 16,000 – 18,000 new households will be added to the region annually, largely as a result of migration, contributing to housing demand. The quick recovery in existing home sales and prices during the past year is also giving developers confidence to move forward with new projects.

Foundations will be poured for 12,000 homes this year, a 44 per cent increase over 2009, and 14,500 units in 2011. Even with these robust increases, the number of starts will fall shy of the average for the last ten years (15,360). There will be more single detached and multiple unit home building during the next two years.

Single family home starts will increase, but because this type of construction saw less of a decline last year than did the multiple unit variety, growth will be more subdued (19%). Multiple unit starts are forecast to increase 57 per cent to 8,500 this year. A further 24 per cent boost in 2011 will bring multi family starts near the ten year average level. Larger multiple unit projects, which saw the sharpest decline in 2009, will start to return to the market. However, these projects will be flexible and started in phases, according to market demand.

Part of the reason for this cautious approach to new projects and for the moderate level of starts forecast for Vancouver is that the inventory of completed and unabsorbed new homes has been edging up. While the inventory of unsold single detached homes remains low, more newly completed apartment condominium units have recently been added to the supply.

However, with monthly condo absorption rates during the first quarter of 2010 holding near the twelve month average pace, and with the HST deadline upcoming at the beginning of July, these units will likely be absorbed quickly.

Rental Market Vacancy Rate to Edge Lower

Rental apartment vacancies are forecast to edge slightly lower this year and next, after increasing in 2009. An improving job market and an expected net inflow of more than 40,000 migrants each year will support demand for rental accommodation. Another factor contributing to strong rental demand is that the difference between monthly rental costs and the cost of carrying a mortgage on an apartment condominium is growing. Condominium prices in many areas have rebounded from their previous lows, making rental accommodation a more attractive alternative for those looking to minimize their monthly outlay.

Strong demand for rental accommodation will keep average apartment rents increasing by four per cent this year and next.

Economy

Economic conditions in the Vancouver CMA will be favourable for the housing market this year and next. 2010 began on an up note in the Vancouver CMA with the Winter Olympic Games boosting consumer spending in the region. Most sectors of the economy are poised for growth this year, following an overall contraction of the economy last year. On the services side, the wholesale and retail trade sector is expected to grow, as are the business and noncommercial services sectors. On the goods side, manufacturing will begin to expand as the US economy improves and demand for British Columbia exports rebounds.

Job growth this year and next will support demand for both ownership and rental housing. Vancouver CMA’s job market is expected to pick up as the economy improves. A modest uptick in new home construction will add jobs and non residential construction employment will get a boost from large infrastructure and transportation projects. Some of the larger proposed projects expected to begin in 2010 include the Interior – Lower Mainland Transmission Line Expansion, the Metro Vancouver Waste-to-Energy Incineration Facility, the BCIT Burnaby Campus Expansion, and the Surrey Memorial Hospital Emergency Department and Critical Care Tower4.

Population growth in the Vancouver CMA will continue to contribute to demand for rental and ownership housing. An estimated 40,000 people are expected to move to the Vancouver region each year. This is will add some 16,000 – 18,000 new households each year, in need of housing. Most migrants to the Vancouver CMA are from international destinations, particularly Asia Pacifi c nations. For example, more than seven out of ten immigrants to Vancouver in the fi nal quarter of 2009 came from Asia (Mainland China, India or Taiwan).

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province climbed 21 per cent to 8,385 units in April compared to the same month last year.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, MLS® residential unit sales in the province declined 4 per cent from March 2010. The average MLS® residential price climbed 15 per cent to $514,820 in April compared to the same month last year.

"BC home sales have trended on an annual rate of 84,000 to 86,000 units over the past three months, down from the 108,000 unit pace recorded in the fourth quarter of last year," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.
A total of 85,028 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded in 2009. "Higher home prices, particularly in Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and Victoria as well as a recent lift in mortgage interest rates has eroded affordability and had an impact on overall housing demand," added Muir.

The BC residential sales dollar volume increased 73 per cent to $13.5 billion in the first four months of 2010, compared to the same period last year. Residential units sales rose 47 per cent to 26,669 units year-to-date, while the average MLS® residential price climbed 17 per cent to $507,616 over the same period.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, follow this link:
www.bcrea.bc.ca/news_room/2010-04.pdf.

Canadian housing activity continues at a bustling pace, but there are glimmers the market is set to cool.

Housing starts rose at an annualized pace of 201,700 units last month, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday, though gains in multi-unit construction masked the first sizable slide in single-unit activity in a year.
A separate survey showed fewer Canadians have firm plans to buy a house. And resale activity is already slowing.

Most economists – including Bank of Canada officials – expect the housing market to slow from its torrid pace. Rising interest rates, tighter mortgage rules and a new sales tax in Ontario and British Columbia will likely dampen activity in the second half of this year. And though monthly numbers – especially in the building sector – can be volatile, economists said the drop in single-family homes suggests the sector is already softening.

"Is this a signal that single-market construction activity will ease going forward? Probably,"said Yanick Desnoyers, assistant chief economist at National Bank Financial.
Quarterly growth in the housing sector is cooling “rapidly,” and he expects the sector will actually have a negative impact on Canada’s economy next year.

Higher interest rates are a chief reason for the expected slowdown. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to boost its key lending rate next month. “The sensitivity of Canadian households to interest-rate hikes is very, very high right now because debt levels of many households have far outstripped personal-income growth," Mr. Desnoyers said.

The resale market, meantime, also points to some moderation as activity has eased from record levels and more supply is coming into the market, the Canadian Real Estate Association said in March.
Canadians seem set to take a breather. Just 3.4 per cent say they are very likely to buy a house in the next 12 months, “suggesting activity may slow during the remainder of this year,” a Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals report said Monday.

To gauge the effect of rising rates, the association simulated the impact of mortgage-rate increases up to 5.25 per cent. The current average mortgage rate is 4.02 per cent among households that locked in fixed rates during the past year.
It found that about 375,000 mortgage holders “are already challenged” by their current payments, and an additional 475,000 might be in trouble if their rate hits 5.25 per cent.
Mortgage rates have already risen, though several banks – including Royal Bank of Canada on Monday– trimmed some rates in recent days. RBC’s five-year closed rate is now 6.10 per cent – still higher than several months ago.

CMHC’s report showed multiple starts rose 27.2 per cent. Single urban starts tumbled 12.7 per cent – the first big drop since last April.
Starts climbed 16.4 per cent in British Columbia, 6.7 per cent in the Prairie region, 4.5 per cent in Ontario, and 1.1 per cent in Quebec. They fell 3.3 per cent in Atlantic Canada. The country needs a pace of about 175,000 to 185,000 units a year to keep up with demographics, economists estimate.

Canadian mortgage numbers

5.55 million
Number of mortgages in Canada, out of a total 9.3 million homeowners in the country.

$138,000
Average outstanding principal.

$770-billion
Outstanding mortgage principal on primary residences in Canada.

0.45%
Portion of Canadian mortgages in arrears as of February.

Sources: Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, Canadian Bankers Association.

REBGV Stats

Home sales activity strong through Olympic period

The Greater Vancouver housing market continued to experience strong demand from homebuyers and an increase in total property listings in a month where the eyes of the world were focused on the region.

Sales of detached properties increased 67.5 per cent in February 2010 to 983 from the 587 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2009. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties increased 22.5 per cent from February 2009 to $800,796.

Click here to download the complete stats package.