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Activity in the Greater Vancouver housing market continued to strengthen in March with both the number of homes sold and added to the region’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) reaching near record levels.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver reached 4,080 in March 2011. This represents a 31.7 per cent increase compared to the 3,097 sales recorded in February 2011, an increase of 30.1 per cent compared to the 3,137 sales in March 2010 and an 80.1 per cent increase from the 2,265 home sales in March 2009. The all-time sales record for March occurred in 2004 when 4,371 transactions were recorded.

"Our market has had a very strong start to the spring season," Rosario Setticasi, REBGV president said. "With home sales above 4,000 and nearly 7,000 home listings added to the MLS® in March, it’s clear that home buyers and sellers view this as a good time to be active in their local housing market."

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 6,797 in March 2011. This represents a 3 per cent decline compared to March 2010 when 7,004 properties were listed for sale on the MLS®, an all-time record for March. Compared to February 2011, last month’s new listings total registered a 19.4 per cent increase.

At, 13,110, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 9.9 per cent in March compared to last month and declined 3 per cent from this time last year.

"Conditions favour sellers at the moment, but we’re seeing differences in home-price trends and overall activity depending on the region and property type," Setticasi said.

The MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 5.4 per cent to $615,810 in March 2011 from $584,435 in March 2010.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in March 2011 reached 1,795, an increase of 34.4 per cent from the 1,336 detached sales recorded in March 2010, and a 100.1 per cent increase from the 897 units sold in March 2009. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 8.3 per cent from March 2010 to $866,806.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,622 in March 2011, a 29.6 per cent increase compared to the 1,252 sales in March 2010, and an increase of 66.2 per cent compared to the 976 sales in March 2009. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 2.1 per cent from March 2010 to $403,885.

Attached property sales in March 2011 totalled 663, a 20.8 per cent increase compared to the 549 sales in March 2010, and a 69.1 per cent increase from the 392 attached properties sold in March 2009. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 3.6 per cent between March 2010 and 2011 to $511,039.

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The Greater Vancouver residential housing market entered three distinctive phases in 2010. Continued buoyancy from the post-recession recovery began the year, followed by a summer lull and, throughout the fall, a sustained period of stability.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that total sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in 2010 reached 30,595, a 14.2 per cent decrease from the 35,669 sales recorded in 2009, but a 24.2 per cent increase from the 24,626 residential sales in 2008. Last year’s number of housing sales was 10.3 per cent below the ten-year average for annual Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales in the region.

The number of residential properties listed for sale on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver increased 9.7 per cent in 2010 to 58,009 compared to the 52,869 properties listed in 2009. Compared to 2008, last year’s total represents a 7.3 per cent decline compared to the 62,561 residential properties listed in 2008. The number of properties added to the MLS® peaked in April and generally declined for the remainder of the year.

“The last two years have been a bit of a rollercoaster for the real estate market. However, sales over the past six months have definitely shown a trend toward stability. We think that’s good news for home buyers and sellers,” Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said. “The Greater Vancouver housing market experienced a modest increase in home prices in 2010, and a continual decrease in the number of properties being listed for sale.”

Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,899 in December 2010, a decrease of 24.5 per cent from the 2,515 sales recorded in December 2009—an all time record for the month—and a 24.3 per cent decline compared to November 2010 when 2,509 home sales occurred.

More broadly, last month’s residential sales represent a 105.5 per cent increase over the 924 residential sales in December 2008, a 0.1 per cent increase compared to December 2007’s 1,897 sales, and a 12.6 per cent increase compared to the 1,686 sales in December 2006.

The residential benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for Greater Vancouver increased 2.7 per cent to $577,808 between Decembers 2009 and 2010. However, prices have decreased 2.6 per cent since hitting a peak of $593,419 in April 2010.

“Although we saw some pressure on home prices throughout the year, home values in 2010 remained relatively steady in the region compared to the last few years when we witnessed much more fluctuation,” Moldowan said.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,699 in December 2010. This represents a 21.1 per cent decline compared to the 2,153 units listed in December 2009 and a 43.9 per cent decline compared to November 2010 when 3,030 properties were listed.

Sales of detached properties in December 2010 reached 769, a decrease of 14.8 per cent from the 902 detached sales recorded in December 2009, and a 121.1 per cent increase from the 348 units sold in December 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 4.0 per cent from December 2009 to $797,868.

Sales of apartment properties reached 811 in December 2010, a decline of 29.7 per cent compared to the 1,154 sales in December 2009, and an increase of 94.5 per cent compared to the 417 sales in December 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 1.2 per cent from December 2009 to $387,115.

Attached property sales in December 2010 totalled 319, a decline of 30.5 per cent compared to the 459 sales in December 2009, and a 100.6 per cent increase from the 159 attached properties sold in December 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 2.7 per cent between December 2009 and 2010 to $490,869.

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Determining how to describe parking stalls and storage lockers when listing a strata lot for sale can be difficult. Simply because the seller has the use of parking stalls or storage lockers does not necessarily mean that they are available for the purchaser. Unless it is confirmed that the stall or locker will be available for use, it should not be on a listing. Property on a strata plan is designated as either a strata lot or common property (CP), which can be further designated as limited common property (LCP). Both CP and LCP are owned by all owners within a strata corporation; individuals exclusively own their strata lots.
 
Strata Lot or Part of a Strata Lot
 
Strata plans can designate parking stalls/ storage lockers as part of a strata lot, in which case the new purchaser will automatically have the use of the area and the listing can identify the stall or locker number. Alternatively, the stalls or lockers would be part of separate strata lots. If the seller is selling both the lot and the parking strata lot, both must be listed for sale and separately transferred to the buyer.
 
Limited Common Property
 
LCP is common property that is designated for the exclusive use, not ownership, of a particular strata lot owner and is shown on the strata plan. Where a parking stall/ storage locker has been designated as LCP for the use of a strata lot, it should be indicated as LCP on a listing. The listing can include the specific stall or locker numbers.
 
Common Property
 
If a parking stall/storage locker is designated as CP, it is within the control of the Strata Council, unless there is a developer’s lease. The Strata Council has the authority to grant an owner or a tenant exclusive use under the Strata Property Act. When listing a strata lot where the parking stall/storage locker is CP, entitlement of use cannot be included, unless there is a developer’s lease or unless the Strata Council has confirmed the use of the stall/locker. When CP has no lease or sublease and the Strata Council confirms the parking stall/storage locker numbers that the buyer would use, they can be referenced on the listing with “subject to the provisions of the Strata Property Act.” If no stall or locker numbers are confirmed, they cannot be referenced in a listing.
 
Developer’s Leases
 
Developers can enter into leases of CP parking stalls/storage lockers to either themselves or to related companies. They then often enter into agreements with purchasers to sublease one or more parking stalls/storage lockers to each purchaser. One parking stall is often assigned to each purchaser who is either charged for only the additional stall or locker or for all subleases. Generally, the sub-lease provides that the owner must assign the sub-lease to a new purchaser at the time the strata lot is sold and the listing can reference the stall or locker numbers. If a seller sub-leased a parking stall/ storage locker from the developer, they can reference the stall or locker when listing the strata lot for sale, indicating that the area in question is CP but subject to a sub-lease. The stall or locker number can be shown on the listing.
 
Purchased Parking Stalls/Storage Lockers
 
In many cases, sellers of strata lots insist that the listing should include the parking stall/storage locker because the seller bought it from the developer. If the area in question is designated as CP, unless there is a lease/sublease arrangement or the Strata Council has confirmed what parking stall/storage locker the buyer will be entitled to use, the stall or locker should not be included on the listing even though it was paid for. Unfortunately, developers can charge purchasers for an additional parking stall or storage locker without designating the area as LCP or entering into a lease/sublease arrangement and the area remains CP which cannot be “bought.” If there was no lease and no designation of LCP, although the developer may have charged the buyer to allocate a parking stall/storage locker, the buyer may not have realized that the developer was acting as the Strata Council who can technically only grant the buyer the use of CP for a one year maximum. If that is the case, the seller could obtain written confirmation from the Strata Council that the same stall or locker would be allocated to the new purchaser. The listing could then reference the stall or locker number and include that it is “subject to the provisions of the Strata Property Act.” Without confirmation from the Strata Council, the listing should not reference the stall or locker number.
 
Recommendations to the Provincial Government
 
BCREA recently submitted recommendations to the provincial government regarding the Strata Property Act addressing, among other issues, the challenges around describing parking stalls and storage lockers when listing a strata lot for sale. To view the full BCREA Strata Property Act brief, visit www.bcrea.bc.ca/govt/2010- 09StrataPropertyAct.pdf. Prior to the conveyance of a strata lot, the strata council, strata corporation accountant or strata property management company fills out a Form B Information Certificate (usually ordered by the REALTOR® on behalf of the seller). Based on extensive consultation and feedback from member boards, BCREA noted that potential buyers of strata properties need more and better information as the Form B Information Certificate does not address critical information. In particular, BCREA recommended that the government add new provisions to section 59(3) of the Act to require strata corpora-tions to disclose information about the designation of parking as either CP, LCP, part of the strata lot or subject to a lease with the developer; if the parking and storage is designated as CP, the strata corporation should indicate how it will be allocated to a new buyer and what stall numbers and storage lockers will be assigned to the buyer.
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Greater Vancouver home sales have remained steady over the past four months, indicating stability in the residential housing market. With the MLS® sales to active listing inventory ratio indicating a buyer's market, properties appropriately priced are selling.

According to the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI), the benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 4.6 per cent to $579,349 in October 2010 from $553,702 in October 2009. Since June, however, residential home prices in Greater Vancouver have remained relatively unchanged, declining 0.2 per cent.

"We've seen a lot more consistency and less volatility in recent months when it comes to both number of sales and pricing, although it's important to remember that conditions often vary between communities and neighbourhoods," Jake Moldowan, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) president said.

Looking at transactions, the number of residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,337 in October 2010. This represents a 5.3 per cent increase compared to September 2010 and a 36.9 per cent decline from the 3,704 sales in October 2009.

More broadly, last mont's residential sales represent a 71.3 per cent increase over the 1,364 residential sales in October 2008, a 22.8 per cent decline compared to October 2007’s 3,028 sales, and a 14.1 per cent decline compared to the 2,722 sales in October 2006.

"As we enter the final two months of the year, buyer demand is in closer alignment with supply than we’ve seen for most of 2010," Moldowan said. "Those buying today recognize that they still have a chance to enter the market with near-record low interest rates, while gradual reductions in inventory have eased downward pressure on prices."

Total active listings on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver currently sit at 14,075, an 8.6 per cent decline from last month and a 16.4 per cent increase from October 2009. New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 25.7 per cent to 3,698 in October 2010 compared to October 2009 when 4,977 new units were listed.

Sales of detached properties in October 2010 reached 976, a decrease of 34.4 per cent from the 1,487 detached sales recorded in October 2009, and a 98 per cent increase from the 493 units sold in October 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 6.3 per cent from October 2009 to $796,883.

Sales of apartment properties reached 984 in October 2010, a decline of 38.8 per cent compared to the 1,607 sales in October 2009, and an increase of 52.1 per cent compared to the 647 sales in October 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 2.4 per cent from October 2009 to $390,074.

Attached property sales in October 2010 totalled 377, a decline of 38.2 per cent compared to the 610 sales in October 2009, and a 68.3 per cent increase from the 224 attached properties sold in October 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 4 per cent between October 2009 and 2010 to $487,530.

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Building Snapshot is a FREE monthly report on real estate activity in your condominium building. It is emailed to you every month, with option to unsubscribe, and it lists all the current active listings for sale and the recent sales for the previous month.

Part of the report is also your unit basic information, such as: assessment, tax info, size, sold price and date, etc, and building statistical data. Building stats data shows the average asking and sold price for all active and sold listings, also average price per square foot for both active and solds. Furthemore, this data is broken down by number of bedrooms.

Future reports will incorporate graphs for both active and sold units for the past 6 months, which will give you a visaul representation of the activity your in building.

Building Snapshot is still in the beta phase and improving daily. It is brought to you by Sanjin Cvetkovic, a Realtor with Century 21 In Town Realty office in downtown Vancouver, and also www.vancouver-proeprties.ca.

You can check a demo report here, and also sign up for FREE report here.

Your comments are appreciated and welcome!
If you would like to see some other features in this report please do not hesitate to contact Sanjin Cvetkovic at 604-771-6415 or by email at sanjin.cvetkovic@century21.ca.

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The global economy is feeling the lasting effects of the most serious financial crisis since the 1930s. As meticulously documented by economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhardt in their examination of eight centuries of data, recoveries from financial crises are characterized by sluggish growth in output and employment.

Although Canada’s relatively stodgy banking system ensured that we did not suffer a domestic financial crisis, our fundamental dependence on the United States, the epicenter of the global crisis, means that we are mired in the second-hand effects of the US’s economic lethargy.

However, as we detail below, there may be a silver lining for BC households in these cloudy skies.

Growth Outlook

Second quarter GDP growth fell well below expectations at just 2% (annualized). This represented a marked deceleration from first quarter growth of 5.8%. Flagging consumer spending and weaker residential investment resulting from the expiration of the home renovation tax credit tempered growth in the second quarter.

Economic growth in the remainder of 2010 and 2011 may continue to underwhelm due a cooling housing sector, sluggish economic growth in the United States and an end to Government fiscal stimulus. Moreover, unemployment that is projected to hover near 8% for several quarters may hinder consumption going forward.

In all, we see the Canadian economy growing at a 3.3% pace in 2010 before slowing to 2.5% in 2011.

Interest Rate Outlook

In the face of slowing growth and low inflation, the Bank of Canada raised rates for what we expect to be the final time in 2010 at its September 8 meeting. Although the Bank’s medium-run objective of returning rates to normal longrun levels is still intact, the Bank will take a very cautious approach to tightening monetary policy over the next 6 to 12 months and further rate tightening will be highly dependent on how solid the ground is underneath both the Canadian and US economies.

Given that inflation is projected to remain subdued and growth is expected to slow, we have trimmed our forecast for the overnight rate to 1% at the end of 2010 and 2 % by the end of 2011 (from 1 %- 1.25 and 2.5 % respectively).

In our July forecast, we noted that mortgage rates would continue to trend lower in the short-run and indeed downward pressure on interest rates has not only continued, but has in fact intensified.

Although fear stemming from the European debt crisis has seemingly subsided, fresh concern has emerged about the United States’ economy where hopes of a “summer of recovery” have quickly faded into fear of a dreaded “doubledip” recession.

In response, cautious households and companies have increased savings, adding to the flood of demand for safe assets and forcing long-term Government bond yields to levels not seen since the height of the global financial crisis.

Yields on Canadian Government 5-year bonds, the benchmark for mortgage pricing, have fallen a remarkable 100 basis points since the spring to just 2.1 %. Although this decline in interest rates is likely overdone, it is difficult to say when bond markets may normalize.

A much discussed second round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve (so-called QE2) could mean that US and Canadian interest rates stay low for an extended period. On the other hand, unexpected good news on the US economy may translate to faster pace of interest rate normalization.

Mortgage Rate Forecast

The silver-lining in the lacklustre economic outlook is that the normalization of both short-term and long-term interest rates will be deferred. BC households with variable rate mortgages will therefore be facing lower payments than we would have originally predicted at the beginning of the year.

Moreover, new homebuyers or homeowners set to renew their mortgages will be offered a second chance at securing rates at levels last seen at the depths of the financial crisis.

The BCREA mortgage rate forecast is for a continuation of the current low-rate environment into early 2011, when prompted by a new round of tightening by the Bank of Canada and (hopefully) brighter economic prospects, interest rates will renew their ascendency to historical norms but at a measured pace.

The 1-year fixed mortgage rate is forecasted to finish 2010 at around 3.2 % and to reach 4.05% by the end of 2011. The 5-year fixed mortgage rate is forecasted to end the year at 5.35% and to reach 6.1 % by the end of 2011.

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The Greater Vancouver housing market experienced steady activity to begin the summer season.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,972 in June 2010, a decline of 30.2 per cent compared to the 4,259 sales in June 2009, which was the second highest selling June on record.

“Activity in June marked a healthy balance between the near record setting pace of June 2009 and the considerably slower activity witnessed in June 2008, a period of recession as we all know,” Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said.

Compared to June 2008, last month’s sales represent a 22.6 per cent increase over the 2,425 sales recorded that month, but are 30 per cent less than the 4,244 sales in June 2007. June 2010 sales also represent a 5.8 per cent decline compared to the previous month’s sales totals.

“We didn’t experience any record-breaking activity in June, but we did see a stable summer market,” Moldowan said. “The number of new listings coming on the market is not as dramatic as we saw over the previous three months and demand remains at a healthy level for this traditionally quieter time of year.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties totalled 5,544 in June 2010, a 3.2 per cent increase compared to June 2009 when 5,372 new units were listed, and a 21 per cent decline compared to May 2010 when 7,014 properties were added to the MLS®.

At 17,564, the total number of property listings on the MLS® increased 1.2 per cent in June compared to last month, and is up 32 per cent compared to this time last year.

“There has been less upward pressure on prices in our market the last few months, which has allowed prices to ease back from the record high numbers seen in April,” Moldowan said.

Over the last 12 months, the overall MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 11.8 per cent to $580,237 from $518,855 in June 2009.

Sales of detached properties in June 2010 reached 1,139, a decrease of 31.7 per cent from the 1,667 detached sales recorded in June 2009 and a 24.1 per cent increase from the 918 units sold in June 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 13.4 per cent from June 2009 to $795,025.

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The number of properties listed for sale in Greater Vancouver continued to rise in May, while the number of sales showed a year-over-year decrease.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,156 in May 2010, a decline of 10.4 per cent compared to the 3,524 sales in May 2009; 5.1 per cent more than the 3,002 sales in May 2008; and 27.1 per cent less than the 4,331 sales in May 2007. May 2010 sales also represent a 10.1 per cent decline compared to last month's sales.

In terms of number of property listings, last month marked the third consecutive month during which more than 7,000 homes were listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties totalled 7,014 in May 2010, a 48.2 per cent increase compared to May 2009 when 4,733 new units were listed, and an 8.3 per cent decline compared to April 2010 when 7,648 properties were added to the MLS®.

At 17,492, the total number of property listings on the MLS® increased 10 per cent in May compared to last month, and is up 28.2 per cent compared to this time last year.

"Prospective home buyers in today’s market have a broad selection to choose from in every property type. REALTORS® are telling us they’re working with buyers who are not feeling as rushed to make a decision as they did late last year and earlier in the year," Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said.

Over the last 12 months, the overall MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 16.7 per cent to $590,662 from $506,201 in May 2009.

housing price index

"It's important for those looking to buy or sell a home to remember that real estate is local and wise real estate decisions are made by those who understand current market conditions at the neighbourhood level," Moldowan said.

Sales of detached properties in May 2010 reached 1,256, a decrease of 10.4 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in May 2009 and a 4.4 per cent increase from the 1,203 units sold in May 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 19.1 per cent from May 2009 to $810,175.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,354 in May 2010, a decline of 7.1 per cent compared to the 1,458 sales in May 2009 and an increase of 8.8 per cent compared to the 1,244 sales in May 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 13.9 per cent from May 2009 to $398,783.

Attached property sales in May 2010 totalled 546, a decline of 17.8 per cent compared to the 664 sales in May 2009 and a 1.6 per cent decline from the 555 attached properties sold in May 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 14.8 per cent between May 2009 and 2010 to $500,339.

Average price graph

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Vancouver Highlights

  • Moderating MLS® sales and more homes listed for sale will move the resale market into more balanced market conditions.
  • Home prices will rise 11 per cent this year1, with most of the gains taking place in the fi rst half of the year.
  • Modest price growth is forecast for 2011.
  • New home construction will increase, but stay below the ten-year average level, this year and next.
  • Improving economic and labour market conditions will mean slightly lower rental apartment vacancy rates in 2010 and 2011.
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Resale Market Becomes More Balanced

MLS® sales in Greater Vancouver are forecast to moderate in the second half of 2010 and remain flat through 2011. While an improving local economy and job market, along with steady population growth, will support home ownership demand, higher mortgage rates will dampen demand starting in the second half of this year. In addition, much of the pent-up demand that built up during 2008, has been satisfied. In 2009, many first time home buyers made the move to home ownership, taking advantage of record low mortgage rates and prices that had fallen from their previous peak levels. While first quarter home sales this year were well above the low levels of the first quarter 2009, the pace of sales has slowed compared to last fall. This trend will continue, resulting in a three per cent decline in annual sales both this year and next.

At the same time that the pace of sales is expected to flatten, there will be more homes for sale. The steady increase in home prices during the past year has motivated potential sellers to list their homes. The number of new listings added to the market trended higher in the first quarter of 2010. However, strong sales have kept the total stock of active listings on the market well below previous peak levels reached in late 2008.

A combination of moderating sales and an increase in the number of listings will mean more balanced market conditions in Vancouver for the remainder of this year and into 2011. Expect to see fewer multiple offers on properties listed for sale. Buyers will have a larger selection of homes to choose from and more time to make their home purchase decision. With more homes on the market, there will also be less upward pressure on prices going forward. As the resale market adjusts to more balanced supply and demand conditions, the pace of price growth will slow. However, there is often a lag between when conditions become more balanced and when prices react. As a result of high prices and robust sales in the early part of 2010, the annual average MLS® price will increase 11 per cent, with the most of the increase accounted for by the first half of the year. Balanced market conditions will result in home prices rising a more modest three per cent in 2011.

Price growth during the past year has varied by home type. As of March 2010, apartment condo and townhouse prices were two and three per cent above their previous peak levels, respectively. However, single detached home prices were seven per cent above their previous peak level, pushing the total price up nine per cent over the previous peak. Single detached home sales have shifted to the higher price ranges. For example, in 2009, 48 per cent of homes sold were priced above $700,000, while in the first quarter of 2010, 62 per cent of the total sales were above this threshold. Apartment condominium sales saw a smaller shift to higher price ranges, with the proportion sold at the upper end of the market (above $400,000) increasing from 32 per cent last year to 38 per cent of total sales in the first quarter of this year.

Modest Increase in New Home Construction

New home construction in the Vancouver CMA is projected to increase this year and next. An improving local economy and job market will contribute to growth in housing starts. As well, an estimated 16,000 – 18,000 new households will be added to the region annually, largely as a result of migration, contributing to housing demand. The quick recovery in existing home sales and prices during the past year is also giving developers confidence to move forward with new projects.

Foundations will be poured for 12,000 homes this year, a 44 per cent increase over 2009, and 14,500 units in 2011. Even with these robust increases, the number of starts will fall shy of the average for the last ten years (15,360). There will be more single detached and multiple unit home building during the next two years.

Single family home starts will increase, but because this type of construction saw less of a decline last year than did the multiple unit variety, growth will be more subdued (19%). Multiple unit starts are forecast to increase 57 per cent to 8,500 this year. A further 24 per cent boost in 2011 will bring multi family starts near the ten year average level. Larger multiple unit projects, which saw the sharpest decline in 2009, will start to return to the market. However, these projects will be flexible and started in phases, according to market demand.

Part of the reason for this cautious approach to new projects and for the moderate level of starts forecast for Vancouver is that the inventory of completed and unabsorbed new homes has been edging up. While the inventory of unsold single detached homes remains low, more newly completed apartment condominium units have recently been added to the supply.

However, with monthly condo absorption rates during the first quarter of 2010 holding near the twelve month average pace, and with the HST deadline upcoming at the beginning of July, these units will likely be absorbed quickly.

Rental Market Vacancy Rate to Edge Lower

Rental apartment vacancies are forecast to edge slightly lower this year and next, after increasing in 2009. An improving job market and an expected net inflow of more than 40,000 migrants each year will support demand for rental accommodation. Another factor contributing to strong rental demand is that the difference between monthly rental costs and the cost of carrying a mortgage on an apartment condominium is growing. Condominium prices in many areas have rebounded from their previous lows, making rental accommodation a more attractive alternative for those looking to minimize their monthly outlay.

Strong demand for rental accommodation will keep average apartment rents increasing by four per cent this year and next.

Economy

Economic conditions in the Vancouver CMA will be favourable for the housing market this year and next. 2010 began on an up note in the Vancouver CMA with the Winter Olympic Games boosting consumer spending in the region. Most sectors of the economy are poised for growth this year, following an overall contraction of the economy last year. On the services side, the wholesale and retail trade sector is expected to grow, as are the business and noncommercial services sectors. On the goods side, manufacturing will begin to expand as the US economy improves and demand for British Columbia exports rebounds.

Job growth this year and next will support demand for both ownership and rental housing. Vancouver CMA’s job market is expected to pick up as the economy improves. A modest uptick in new home construction will add jobs and non residential construction employment will get a boost from large infrastructure and transportation projects. Some of the larger proposed projects expected to begin in 2010 include the Interior – Lower Mainland Transmission Line Expansion, the Metro Vancouver Waste-to-Energy Incineration Facility, the BCIT Burnaby Campus Expansion, and the Surrey Memorial Hospital Emergency Department and Critical Care Tower4.

Population growth in the Vancouver CMA will continue to contribute to demand for rental and ownership housing. An estimated 40,000 people are expected to move to the Vancouver region each year. This is will add some 16,000 – 18,000 new households each year, in need of housing. Most migrants to the Vancouver CMA are from international destinations, particularly Asia Pacifi c nations. For example, more than seven out of ten immigrants to Vancouver in the fi nal quarter of 2009 came from Asia (Mainland China, India or Taiwan).

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province climbed 21 per cent to 8,385 units in April compared to the same month last year.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, MLS® residential unit sales in the province declined 4 per cent from March 2010. The average MLS® residential price climbed 15 per cent to $514,820 in April compared to the same month last year.

"BC home sales have trended on an annual rate of 84,000 to 86,000 units over the past three months, down from the 108,000 unit pace recorded in the fourth quarter of last year," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.
A total of 85,028 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded in 2009. "Higher home prices, particularly in Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and Victoria as well as a recent lift in mortgage interest rates has eroded affordability and had an impact on overall housing demand," added Muir.

The BC residential sales dollar volume increased 73 per cent to $13.5 billion in the first four months of 2010, compared to the same period last year. Residential units sales rose 47 per cent to 26,669 units year-to-date, while the average MLS® residential price climbed 17 per cent to $507,616 over the same period.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, follow this link:
www.bcrea.bc.ca/news_room/2010-04.pdf.

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A decision of the British Columbia Human Rights Tribunal late last year could have an enormous effect on owners and occupants of condominiums and rental apartments across Canada in the coming months.

Paul and Rose Kabatoff live in a suite in an attractive three-storey condominium building in Langley, B.C. They both have a number of health problems including respiratory illnesses and allergies that are negatively affected by second-hand cigarette smoke.

In August 2008, smokers moved into the suite below their own. The Kabatoffs appealed for help to their condominium corporation (known in B.C. as a strata corporation), claiming that the second-hand smoke coming from their neighbours downstairs worsened their health problems. They provided a letter from their doctor supporting their request.

Ideally, the Kabatoffs wanted the condominium to adopt a no smoking bylaw, which it would not do.

Eventually, they filed a claim with the B.C. Human Rights Tribunal, asserting that the condominium failed to provide them with a housing environment free of second-hand smoke. They alleged that the condominium refused to do anything about the smoke issue, and that they were told that if they had a problem with the smokers they should move.

The B.C. Human Rights Code makes it illegal to deny accommodation to a person because of his or her physical disability (among other reasons) without "a bona fide and reasonable justification." The Ontario code has a similar prohibition, stating that every person has a right to equal treatment with respect to the occupancy of accommodation without discrimination by reason of disability (and other reasons).

As with other provincial Human Rights Codes, the B.C. code prevails in the event of a conflict with any other legislation – including the B.C. Strata Property Act.

In October, the condominium (strata) corporation applied to the tribunal to have the complaint dismissed without a hearing. They based the application on the fact that the smokers were not violating any condominium bylaws. The president of the corporation said that it does not have a no-smoking bylaw and it therefore had no authority or ability to respond to the complaint.

Essentially, its position was that since there was no prohibition of smoking in an owner's private suite or balcony in the building, there was no basis for the Kabatoff complaint.

Tribunal member Marlene Tyshynski presided at the hearing, and dismissed the condominium corporation's application to toss out the complaint. She also provided a clear road map for the Kabatoffs to pursue and even succeed with their claim.

"If the Kabatoffs are able to establish that they have disabilities that are exacerbated by second-hand smoke," Tyshynski wrote, "their complaint that Strata Corp. failed to accommodate their disabilities could amount to discrimination under the code. The Strata Corp.'s application would be denied."

If the Kabatoffs are able to produce medical evidence of physical disability at the hearing of their complaint, it seems that this condominium – and similar condominium or rental buildings across the country – would be forced to become completely non-smoking if any occupant complains of a disability resulting from tobacco smoke.

As a human rights issue, the no-smoking requirement would supersede any building bylaw or condominium legislation in force at the time.

The idea that external legislation could affect the governing of condominium corporations will probably not go over well with the management and boards of thousands of condo and rental buildings across the country.

On the other hand, those of us who are very sensitive to tobacco smoke will chalk this case up as a significant victory for public health advocates. (Full disclosure: I am an elected member and past chair of the executive committee of the Non-Smokers' Rights Association.)

In a telephone conversation last week, Paul Kabatoff said that negotiations are underway with the new condominium board, and that his Tribunal application may not have to proceed to a full hearing.

I wouldn't be surprised if the entire building became smoke-free within the next little while.

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REBGV Stats

Home sales activity strong through Olympic period


The Greater Vancouver housing market continued to experience strong demand from homebuyers and an increase in total property listings in a month where the eyes of the world were focused on the region.

 
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,473 in February 2010, an increase of 67.1 per cent compared to February 2009 when 1,480 sales were recorded and a 28.6 per cent increase compared to the 1,923 sales recorded in January 2010.
 
More broadly, last month’s sales totals marked a 7.6 per cent decline compared to the 2,676 sales recorded in February 2008 and were 13.5 per cent behind February 2007 when 2,859 residential sales were recorded on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver.
 
Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 19.7 per cent to $581,911 from $486,054 in February 2009. This price is 2.4 per cent above the previous high point in the market in May 2008 when the residential benchmark price sat at $568,411.
 
 “We don’t know at this point what long-term impact the Olympics will have on our housing market, but we do know that activity in our market remained steady through all of the excitement and distraction of the last few weeks,” Scott Russell, REBGV president said.
 
“In February, for example, 110 sales were recorded on the MLS® in downtown Vancouver. That’s higher than 2009 and slightly lower than the mid-2000s, which is consistent with data from the overall market. It’s too soon to say whether that’s an Olympic effect,” Russell said.
 
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 4,606 in February 2010. This represents a 17.6 per cent increase compared to February 2009 when 3,916 new units were listed, and a 10.5 per cent decrease compared to January 2010 when 5,147 properties were listed on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver.
 
At 11,346, the total number of property listings on the MLS® increased 11 per cent in February compared to last month and declined 21 per cent from this time last year.
 
“Two months into 2010, we see the total number of homes listed for sale on the rise and demand in the market strong, but less frenzied than we saw in the latter part of 2009,” Russell said.
 

Sales of detached properties increased 67.5 per cent in February 2010 to 983 from the 587 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2009. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties increased 22.5 per cent from February 2009 to $800,796.

 
Sales of apartment properties in February 2010 increased 65.2 per cent to 1,074 compared to 650 sales in February 2009. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 17.3 per cent from February 2009 to $390,899.
 
Attached property sales in February 2010 are up 71.2 per cent to 416, compared with the 243 sales in February 2009. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 16.2 per cent between Februarys 2009 and 2010 to $495,496.
 

 

Click here to download the complete stats package.

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